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February 25 - Wall Street Journal (Andrew Browne): "China’s superrich are nervously watching as the Chinese forex weakens against the dollar. Lewis, Connie. "Marketer Takes IKEA Outdoors for a Sensory Sales Experience." San Diego Business Journal. 17. Auto sales & leasing down. The rising greenback has upended that strategy and mainland firms are paying down greenback debt to keep away from incurring a loss, in turn further boosting demand for the US forex. A possible set off for a disorderly exodus of capital, one that would threaten the whole fragile monetary system, would be a precipitous decline in the value of the Chinese foreign money… Japanese 10-yr "JGB" yields fell five bps to 0.33% (up one bp y-t-d). The Chinese Credit Bubble has been historic, dwarfing the fateful Japanese Bubble from the eighties. And throw in the probability that rich Chinese have one eye on the exit, fully meaning to exit a crumbling Bubble. That the Fed and global central bankers have responded to this instability with progressively more experimental intervention and manipulation solely ensures a momentous calamity. Policymakers have responded to resulting serial booms and busts with ever extra obtrusive activism - together with curiosity price, liquidity, communication and monetization insurance policies. A rules-based coverage method incorporating disincentives for leveraged speculation and monetary excess would over time work to restrain speculative cycles and resulting Credit booms and busts.

The decline in the renminbi continues pressuring Chinese corporations that borrowed in US dollars and anticipated to learn over time by paying again such debts by way of an appreciating domestic forex. Over this long cycle, market-based finance (as opposed to traditional bank lending) has come to dominate system Credit - together with market and financial performance. Investment-grade issuers included Chevron $6.0bn, Daimler Finance $3.0bn, Williams Partners LP $3.0bn, JP Morgan $2.5bn, Eli Lilly $2.2bn, HSBC USA $3.3bn, Caterpillar Financial $1.15bn, American Express $850 million, Juniper Networks $600 million, Magellan Midstream Partners LP $500 million, Nissan Motor Acceptance $900 million, Kinder Morgan $800 million, Coach $600 million, Harley-Davidson $600 million, Kimberly-Clark $500 million, Xerox $650 million, Commonwealth Edison $400 million, Apollo Investment $350 million, Arrow Electronics $350 million, Discovery Communications $300 million, Tucson Electric Power $300 million, New York Public Library $185 million and TCF National Bank $150 million. February 27 - Financial Times (Patrick McGee and Michael Hunter): "China’s renminbi has touched a 28-month low in opposition to the US dollar, the most recent slide reflecting central bank activity and funding flows. Similarly, the Dollar Tree-owned Family Dollar, which began off selling items below $2, has since moved to a $1-to-$10 value level. Just like the US Dollar, the Euro additionally has a powerful international acceptance streaming from the members of the European Monetary Union.

With a global reserve position of $3.Eight TN (and shrinking), the idea is that China has greater than sufficient "money" to stimulate the financial system, recapitalize the banking system and help the renminbi. It’s not that "the transmission of financial policy to the true economic system is more variable and unsure." The critical issue is as an alternative that market-based Credit is inherently highly unstable. I've been pondering not too long ago, as we expertise the decline and doable fall of the US economy. Investing in an economic system that is in restoration would depend upon one, how the nation's economy fared throughout the recessions and two, new insurance policies of the federal government. Most everybody, besides true believers and the early adopters, "knew" that the FXRX was a government institution. Two-12 months authorities yields slipped a basis level to 0.62% (down 5bps y-t-d). Greek 10-year yields sank 44 bps to 9.29% (down 46bps y-t-d). Five-year T-word yields dropped 9 bps to 1.50% (down 15bps). Ten-12 months Treasury yields fell 12 bps to 1.99% (down 18bps). Long bond yields sank 12 bps to 2.59% (down 16bps). Benchmark Fannie MBS yields fell 12 bps to 2.74% (down 9bps). The spread between benchmark MBS and 10-12 months Treasury yields was little changed at 75 bps.

Ten-yr Portuguese yields dropped forty bps to 1.81% (down 81bps). Italian 10-yr yields fell 25 bps to 1.33% (down 56bps). Spain's 10-yr yields dropped 24 bps to 1.26% (down 35bps). German bund yields declined 4 bps to 0.33% (down 21bps). French yields fell eight bps to a report low 0.60% (down 22bps). The French to German 10-12 months bond unfold narrowed 4 to 27 bps. An index of junk bond danger fell seven bps to a 5-month low 320 bps. Silicon Valley, Manhattan, higher-end actual property across the country, subprime auto loans, سعر الدولار اليوم في البنك الأهلي المصري jumbo mortgages, file corporate debt issuance, etc. Record inventory and bond costs - record prices for something that gives a yield. The German DAX equities index jumped 3.2% to report highs (up 16.3%). Spain's IBEX 35 equities index rose 2.8% (up 8.7%). Italy's FTSE MIB index gained 2.3% (up 17.5%). Emerging equities were mixed. Japan's Nikkei equities index jumped 2.5% to a 15-yr high (up 7.7% y-t-d). An index of EM debt risk declined two bps to 358 bps. An index of investment grade bond risk declined two to 61 bps.

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