Poland Set to 'Soon Overtake Britain in Military Strength And Income' > 자유게시판

Britain is on course to ending up being a 'second tier' European nation like Spain or Italy due to financial decline and a weak military that undermines its usefulness to allies, a professional has alerted.

Research professor Dr Azeem Ibrahim OBE concluded in a damning brand-new report that the U.K. has been paralysed by low investment, high tax and misguided policies that might see it lose its standing as a top-tier middle power at present growth rates.

The stark assessment weighed that successive government failures in guideline and attracting financial investment had caused Britain to lose out on the 'markets of the future' courted by developed economies.

'Britain no longer has the industrial base to logistically sustain a war with a near-peer like Russia for more than two months,' he wrote in The Henry Jackson Society's newest report, Strategic Prosperity: The Case for Economic Growth as a National Security Priority.

The report examines that Britain is now on track to fall back Poland in regards to per capita earnings by 2030, and that the main European nation's military will soon go beyond the U.K.'s along lines of both manpower and devices on the present trajectory.

'The concern is that once we are downgraded to a second tier middle power, it's going to be virtually impossible to get back. Nations don't come back from this,' Dr Ibrahim informed MailOnline today.

'This is going to be sped up decline unless we nip this in the bud and have strong leaders who have the ability to make the tough decisions today.'

People pass boarded up shops on March 20, 2024 in Hastings, England

A British soldier reloads his rifle on February 17, 2025 in Smardan, Romania

Staff Sergeant Rai utilizes a radio to speak to Archer crews from 19th Regiment Royal Artillery throughout a live fire range on Rovajärvi Training Area, during Exercise Dynamic Front, Finland

Dr Ibrahim welcomed the federal government's decision to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP from April 2027, but warned much deeper, systemic concerns threaten to irreversibly knock the U.K. from its position as a globally influential power.

With a weakening industrial base, Britain's effectiveness to its allies is now 'falling back even second-tier European powers', he warned.

Why WW3 is currently here ... and how the UK will need to lead in America's lack

'Not just is the U.K. forecasted to have a lower GDP per capita than Poland by 2030, but likewise a smaller sized army and one that is unable to sustain release at scale.'

This is of specific concern at a time of heightened geopolitical stress, with Britain pegged to be amongst the leading forces in Europe's quick rearmament job.

'There are 230 brigades in Ukraine right now, Russian and Ukrainian. Not a single European nation to install a single heavy armoured brigade.'

'This is a huge oversight on the part of subsequent governments, not simply Starmer's problem, of stopping working to invest in our military and essentially contracting out to the United States and NATO,' he told MailOnline.

'With the U.S. getting fatigue of supplying the security umbrella to Europe, Europe now has to base on its own and the U.K. would have been in a premium position to actually lead European defence. But none of the European countries are.'

Slowed defence costs and patterns of low productivity are absolutely nothing brand-new. But Britain is now also 'failing to adjust' to the Trump administration's shock to the rules-based worldwide order, said Dr Ibrahim.

The former advisor to the 2021 Integrated Defence and Security Review kept in mind in the report that in spite of the 'weakening' of the organizations as soon as 'protected' by the U.S., Britain is reacting by harming the last vestiges of its military might and financial power.

The U.K., he stated, 'appears to be making increasingly pricey gestures' like the ₤ 9bn handover of the strategic Chagos Islands and opening talks on reparations for Caribbean Slavery.

The surrender of the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean has actually been the source of much examination.

Negotiations in between the U.K. and Mauritius were started by the Tories in 2022, but an arrangement was announced by the Labour government last October.

Dr Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute defence and security think thank warned at the time that 'the relocation demonstrates worrying tactical ineptitude in a world that the U.K. government explains as being characterised by terrific power competition'.

Calls for the U.K. to provide reparations for its historic role in the servant trade were revived also in October last year, though Sir Keir Starmer said ahead of a meeting of Commonwealth nations that reparations would not be on the program.

An Opposition 2 main battle tank of the British forces during the NATO's Spring Storm exercise in Kilingi-Nomme, Estonia, Wednesday, May 15, 2024

Britain's Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk speak during a press conference in Warsaw, Poland, January 17, 2025

Dr Ibhramin examined that the U.K. seems to be acting against its own security interests in part due to a narrow understanding of danger.

'We understand soldiers and missiles but fail to completely envisage the threat that having no alternative to China's supply chains may have on our ability to react to military hostility.'

He recommended a brand-new security model to 'enhance the U.K.'s tactical dynamism' based upon a rethink of migratory policy and threat evaluation, access to unusual earth minerals in a market controlled by China, and the prioritisation of energy security and independence by means of financial investment in North Sea gas and a long-overdue rethink on nuclear energy.

'Without immediate policy changes to reignite growth, Britain will become a lessened power, reliant on more powerful allies and vulnerable to foreign coercion,' the Foreign Policy writer stated.

'As international financial competitors magnifies, the U.K. needs to decide whether to accept a vibrant development program or resign itself to irreversible decrease.'

Britain's commitment to the concept of Net Zero might be admirable, however the pursuit will inhibit growth and unknown strategic objectives, he cautioned.

'I am not stating that the environment is trivial. But we merely can not afford to do this.

'We are a country that has actually stopped working to invest in our financial, in our energy infrastructure. And we have substantial resources at our disposal.'

Nuclear power, including the use of little modular reactors, could be a benefit for the British economy and energy self-reliance.

'But we've stopped working to commercialise them and certainly that's going to take a substantial amount of time.'

Britain did present a new financing model for nuclear power stations in 2022, which lobbyists including Labour politicians had actually firmly insisted was essential to finding the cash for expensive plant-building jobs.

While Innovate UK, Britain's innovation agency, has been declared for its grants for small energy-producing business in the house, business owners have warned a broader culture of 'risk hostility' in the U.K. stifles investment.

In 2022, earnings for the poorest 14 million individuals fell by 7.5%, per the ONS. Pictured: Waterlooville High Street, Waterlooville, Hants

Undated file image of The British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT) or Chagos Islands

Britain has regularly failed to acknowledge the looming 'authoritarian threat', permitting the pattern of handled decrease.

But the renewal of autocracies on the world phase threats further undermining the rules-based global order from which Britain 'advantages enormously' as a globalised economy.

'The risk to this order ... has established partially since of the lack of a robust will to safeguard it, owing in part to ponder foreign efforts to overturn the recognition of the true lurking threat they present.'

The Trump administration's alerting to NATO allies in Europe that they will need to do their own bidding has gone some way towards waking Britain as much as the urgency of purchasing defence.

But Dr Ibrahim cautioned that this is not enough. He prompted a top-down reform of 'essentially our whole state' to bring the ossified state back to life and sustain it.

'Reforming the welfare state, reforming the NHS, reforming pensions - these are essentially bodies that use up enormous amounts of funds and they'll simply keep growing considerably,' he informed MailOnline.

'You could double the NHS budget plan and it will actually not make much of a damage. So all of this will require basic reform and will take a great deal of courage from whomever is in power because it will make them unpopular.'

The report describes suggestions in extreme tax reform, pro-growth migration policies, and a restored focus on securing Britain's function as a leader in modern markets, energy security, and international trade.

Vladimir Putin talks to the governor of Arkhangelsk area Alexander Tsybulsky during their meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, Tuesday, March 11, 2025

File photo. Britain's financial stagnancy could see it soon become a '2nd tier' partner

Boarded-up shops in Blackpool as more than 13,000 shops closed their doors for great in 2024

Britain is not alone in falling back. The Trump administration's insistence that Europe spend for its own defence has actually cast fresh light on the Old Continent's alarming scenario after years of slow development and reduced costs.

The Centre for Economic Policy Research evaluated at the end of in 2015 that Euro location financial efficiency has been 'subdued' given that around 2018, highlighting 'diverse difficulties of energy reliance, making vulnerabilities, and moving global trade characteristics'.

There stay profound disparities between European economies; German deindustrialisation has hit organizations tough and forced redundancies, while Spain has grown in line with its tourism-focused economy.

This remains vulnerable, however, with locals significantly agitated by the perceived pandering to foreign visitors as they are priced out of budget friendly accommodation and trapped in low paying seasonal jobs.

The Henry Jackson Society is a diplomacy and national security think thank based in the United Kingdom.

SpainPoland